NFL Postseason Scenarios: Key Deciders & Scenarios for the Season Finale.
As we head into the final week of the regular NFL campaign, only a pair of play-off spots are still up for grabs. However, far more is on the line, including the coveted top seeds in both conferences and four division titles.
The schedule makers have crafted a perfect finale, with the final two play-off positions on the line in two direct winner-take-all matchups.
Current NFL Play-Off Standings
American Football Conference Rankings
- Denver Broncos (13-3)
- New England Patriots (13-3)
- Jacksonville (12-4)
- Pittsburgh (9-7) / Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
- Houston (11-5)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo (11-5)
The winner of the Pittsburgh-Baltimore contest will claim the #4 spot and a home-field advantage in the first playoff round. Meanwhile, the Bills and Los Angeles are locked in as wildcard teams.
The Texans require a victory and a Jaguars defeat to jump from fifth to the third seed. The Broncos will earn the top seed with a triumph, but a loss could pave the way for the Patriots or the Jaguars to claim it.
National Football Conference Rankings
- Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
- Chicago Bears (11-5)
- Philadelphia (11-5)
- Carolina Panthers (8-8) / Tampa Bay (7-9)
- San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
- Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
- Green Bay (9-6)
The NFC South is up for grabs by the winner of the Carolina-Tampa Bay matchup, granting them the fourth seed. Notably, the Panthers could still claim the divisional title even with a defeat, depending on other outcomes.
The Packers are locked into the seventh seed. The highlight, though, is the clash for the #1 seed in the NFC between Seattle and the 49ers, with a first-round bye and home-field advantage on the line.
Understanding the NFL Play-Off Format
The top seed in both the AFC and NFC earns a crucial bye week and home games throughout the play-offs.
During the Wild Card round, the other six playoff teams face off: the second seed plays the #7 team, third hosts sixth, and fourth hosts fifth.
For the second round, the #1 seeds enter the fray, facing the lowest surviving team. The AFC and NFC championship games are then played at the best remaining team, underscoring the immense importance of securing that #1 ranking.
Win or Go Home in the AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens (01:20, Monday)
This fierce rivalry comes to a head in the last contest of the regular season. With the AFC North and a play-off berth on the line, this is a true win-or-go-home scenario.
Pittsburgh have been up and down all year, while Baltimore struggled early but remain in contention. Player availability could be decisive: Pittsburgh may be without star receiver DK Metcalf, while Baltimore's signal-caller Lamar Jackson is questionable with a back injury.
Running back the powerful back could be the x-factor for Baltimore in what promises to be a hard-hitting, low-scoring struggle.
Battle for #1 in the NFC
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Not only the NFC West is at stake when Seattle travels to the 49ers. The victorious team claims the NFC's top seed and the path to the championship game that comes with it.
This game features an explosive San Francisco attack against a dominant Seahawks defense. Since quarterback Brock Purdy came back, the 49ers have been the league's highest scorers. On the other hand, Seattle's defense is ranked second best in the league.
Seattle QB Sam Darnold must avoid costly turnovers that have haunted him this year. The team that wins this clash gains a massive edge for the playoff run.
The NFC South's Uncertain Finish
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers (21:30 Saturday)
Both clubs enters this contest with much momentum. The Buccaneers have lost seven of eight, while Carolina have squandered chances to secure the division.
For Carolina it's simple: a victory gets them in. The Buccaneers, the scenario is more complex. Even with a win, they require help from the Atlanta-New Orleans matchup to steal the division crown.
AFC's Top Seed Up for Grabs
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00, Sunday)
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins (21:25, Sunday)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25, Sunday)
The Denver Broncos control their destiny for the #1 AFC spot. A win over a Chargers team expected to sit starters seals it.
If the Broncos lose, the door opens for the New England Patriots. A Patriots win combined with a Broncos loss would hand the #1 ranking to Bill Belichick's team.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the long shot. They need a triumph and losses by both Denver and New England to pull off an improbable ascent to #1. More importantly, a Jacksonville defeat could see them passed by the Texans in the division standings.
NFL Week 18: Complete Schedule
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
